with all respect
House prices can go up and down, and incredibly fast both ways! The market NEVER goes just sideways, thats impossible.. think about it. Given this everyone is always trying to pick the bit just before the top to sell...... how many do you think get it right?
In general in NZ house price history shows that during downturns houses do move down in real $$$ terms, approx 8-9% PA in AKL in past. But for the buyer the significant thing is that the quality of the stock available goes up, and if you hold a dump... best you do not have to sell.
The banks fund their mortgage books offshore, in general at the NZ base rate + a little bit, and they have to manage the exchange risk. in general the book is a 2 year average fund, thus the banks are slightly exposed to 5 year fixed lenders, thats why they encourage 2 year fixes 8)
While our doller is held high by our high interest rates (called a high yielding currency) this will all change rapidly as/when the US economy recovers and the FED starts tighting.
We have a MIGRATION lead economy.. and migrants need houses, if the economy turns down (something every bank economist in the country is forecasting) the gumint can ease immigration rules if necessary to spur economy.
The biggest mistake most people make is to buy there first house and live in it themselves... financially / tax wise, thats so stupid.....
House prices can and do go into negitive equity situations (you owe more on mortgage then the house is worth) ... its happened here before and in the UK!
Do i think the market will crash? only if we have a major event (foot and mouth for real, massive international war (taiwan/china scenarios?) flu that kills 1 in 20 people would do it!
in other words, probably over our life times, we will see 1 event capable of dropping houses prices about 30% overnight.......
its much more likely we will see only inflation growth or even a 8%ish fall in selling prices for a year or two, our base rate is very high, the RBNZ can cut it a long way to spur buying.... they want a soft landing
remember if you are in trouble with the rest of the population, the banks are in bigger trouble
last point, if the house you are looking at is 300k and it goes up only 5% while you wait, before tax you have to make an extra 20k just to stand still? can you do that?